What prediction market will have the most accurate prediction for the Senate midterm election of 2026? (Read Rules)
PolitiqueOne-OffUS PoliticsÉlection1moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuellePolymarket 35.6%En tête parmi 3 options
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète31 juil. 26, 09:46 UTC4 nov. 26, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Règles
This market will resolve to which prediction is the most accurate based on the formula outlined below.
- For the purposes of this market, the winner of the Senate will be the party that AP declares will hold a majority in the Senate as a result of the 2026 midterms (this includes the tie-breaking vote of the vice president and independent senators who are known to caucus with one party).
- If there is a tie, the market that had the most accurate prediction at 8 PM on the day of the midterms will win.
- The accuracy of a market's forecasts shall be measured using a Linear Decreasing Time-Weighted Brier Score.
- The purpose of this scoring rule is to reward markets that make accurate forecasts earlier in the life of the market, rather than only shortly before the outcome becomes known.
- Markets will be measured once per calendar day.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour What prediction market will have the most accurate prediction for the Senate midterm election of 2026? (Read Rules) ?
- Manifold Markets cote Polymarket à 36% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand What prediction market will have the most accurate prediction for the Senate midterm election of 2026? (Read Rules) sera-t-il résolu ?
- What prediction market will have the most accurate prediction for the Senate midterm election of 2026? (Read Rules) doit être résolu le 4 novembre 2026.
- Comment What prediction market will have the most accurate prediction for the Senate midterm election of 2026? (Read Rules) est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to which prediction is the most accurate based on the formula outlined below.