Prévision communautaire actuelle
October 53.1%-0.7ptEn tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-0.7 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard19 mai 26, 11:51 UTC30 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
How active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be?
Manifold MarketsHow many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
PolymarketWill the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season produce at least 3 hurricanes by October 15?
Manifold MarketsWhich storm names used in the 2026 North Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
PolymarketWhen will the next Atlantic hurricane form?
KalshiRègles
Activity is measured in accumulated cyclone energy (ACE).
- If a storm is active across two distinct months, I’ll do my best to estimate the breakdown of ACE into the two months.
- I may ask Claude Opus 4.7 for assistance in resolving the question if needed.
- Source for resolution: https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic
- In the unlikely case of a tie, I will use the number of storms in a month.
- In case of an even unlikelier subsequent tie, I will use the number of active days in a month.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volume total
- 241,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 128 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 349,4 k €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
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- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour What month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season? ?
- Manifold Markets cote October à 53% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand What month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season? sera-t-il résolu ?
- What month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season? doit être résolu le 30 novembre 2026.
- Comment What month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Activity is measured in accumulated cyclone energy (ACE).