Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleSaturday 1.8%-0.3%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
22
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 minutes
24 juil. 26, 5:0331 juil. 26, 4:59
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
Saturday2%
Tendance du volume
$21424 juil.3j de données26 juil.
Marchés Associés
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
1,9 M €July 18: 100%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
992,1 k €Oui: 20%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
711,7 k €August 31: 68%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US-Iran nuclear deal?
20,9 k €Before Jan 1, 2027: 21%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Will Netanyahu be arrested?
13,8 k €Before Jan 1, 2027: 8%KALSHI
KALSHIWill a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
4,7 k €Oui: 1.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActifs dans ces sujets
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on the day of the first qualifying direct military attack launched by Iran on the territory of Israel during the week of July 20 to July 26, 2026, measured in Israel Daylight Time (IDT, UTC+3).
- A qualifying "attack" is defined as an offensive military strike (such as ballistic/cruise missiles or suicide drones) launched directly from Iranian territory at Israel, or an attack officially claimed by Iranian state forces (such as the IRGC) targeting Israel.
- Attacks conducted solely by regional proxies (such as Hezbollah or the Houthis) do not qualify unless officially claimed as a direct state-level action by Iran.
- The outcomes will resolve as follows:
- Friday: The first qualifying attack occurs on Friday, July 24, 2026 (IDT).