Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 87.7%
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 57 minutes
En retard22 sept. 26, 14:32 UTC28 oct. 26, 12:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the 'mansion tax' threshold be set below £2 million?
Manifold MarketsUK Autumn Budget 2026: will any working-age benefit be cut or uprated below CPI?
Manifold MarketsUK Autumn Budget 2026: will VAT on domestic gas be cut below 5%?
Manifold MarketsUK Autumn Budget 2026: will the Energy Profits Levy be raised or extended?
Manifold MarketsBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
PolymarketWill California pass a wealth tax referendum in 2026?
PredictItRègles
YES if the Budget announces a recurring tax on net wealth.
- Polymarket priced this at about 12% on 21 Sep 2026.
- Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates).
- A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it.
- A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.
- This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.