Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 99%
Prévisionnistes
33
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 40 minutes
1 oct. 22, 06:06 UTC2 janv. 28, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2027
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Manifold MarketsIf Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?
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KalshiRègles
This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2028.
- This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is.
- Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, the half-life of the cost to invest here is about a month