Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 99%
Prévisionnistes
33
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète1 oct. 22, 06:06 UTC2 janv. 28, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2027
Manifold MarketsThis question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030
Manifold MarketsThis question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2029
Manifold MarketsUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
PolymarketBallon d'Or Winner 2026
PolymarketThis question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question)
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2028.
- This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is.
- Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, the half-life of the cost to invest here is about a month
Marchés ouverts
SoccerPOLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona17.9%
- Arsenal15.1%
- Bayern Munich13.2%
+33 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 24,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,7 M €
KALSHIArizona vs Kansas City
- Arizona+3.0pt51.9%
- Kansas City+1.0pt48.1%
- Volume total
- 867,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 836,5 k €
KALSHIIndepend. Santa Fe vs Vasco da Gama
- Tie+69.0pt98%
- Independ. Santa Fe-43.0pt1%
- Vasco da Gama-25.0pt1%
- Volume total
KALSHIFluminense vs Platense
- Fluminense+37.0pt98%
- Platense-11.0pt1%
- Tie-23.0pt1%
- Volume total
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors+4.0pt66.3%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons-3.0pt33.7%
- Volume total
- 514,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 496,9 k €
POLYMARKETBallon d'Or Winner 2026
- Harry Kane-0.9pt61.8%
- Lamine Yamal-0.3pt13.7%
- Kylian Mbappé+1.9pt11.8%
+28 résultats de plus
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Kansas City Royals
- Fluminense vs Platense: Total Goals
- Independ. Santa Fe vs Vasco da Gama: Total Goals
- Arizona vs Kansas City: Home Runs
- Barcelona vs Feyenoord
- Napoli vs Arsenal
- Sporting CP vs. Galatasaray SK
- Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?
- FC Barcelona vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam
- Champions League Winner
- Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo
- PSG vs Slovan Bratislava
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028 ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 99% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028 sera-t-il résolu ?
- This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028 doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2028.
- Comment This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2028.