This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030
One-OffTechEntreprises et affaires3aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 98.9%
Prévisionnistes
157
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 55 minutes
En retard8 avr. 22, 16:06 UTC2 janv. 30, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028
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Manifold MarketsWill North Macedonia be a Member of the European Union on 1st of January 2030?
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PolymarketRègles
This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2030.
- This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is.
- Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, you can bet the first M$20 for free.
