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Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available?

RégulationOne-Off3mois

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Oui 90.4%

Prévisionnistes

5

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 13 heures

Obsolète

10 avr. 26, 21:40 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Marchés Associés

Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.

When will Tesla FSD (supervised) be widely available in the EU?

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Loans against Polymarket positions widely available before EOY 2026?

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Car with no physical side mirrors widely available in the EU before 2027

Manifold Markets

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Anthropic IPO by which date?

Will the Clarity Act become law?

Règles

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, a publicly or commercially available AI system is widely recognized by relevant experts, technical benchmarks, or industry consensus as having "comparable cyber capabilities" to the Mythos system.
Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
"Comparable cyber capabilities" will be assessed based on the ability of an AI system to perform automated, end-to-end vulnerability research, exploit development, and cyber-offensive operations at a performance level similar to or exceeding those demonstrated by Mythos as of April 2026. "Widely available" means accessible to the general public, developers, or enterprise customers via API, software license, or open-source release.
In the event of ambiguity regarding the capabilities of Mythos or the successor systems, resolution will rely on consensus from credible cybersecurity researchers, AI safety organizations, or major technical publications (e.g., reports from NIST, CISA, or peer-reviewed AI/security literature).
If no clear consensus exists, the market will resolve based on the preponderance of evidence at that time.

Marchés ouverts

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

No+2.0pt86%
Yes-2.0pt14%

Volume total: 12,4 M €
Volume 24h: 182,3 k €

Anthropic IPO by which date?

December 31,-1.0pt90%
December 15,+3.5pt90%
November 30,85%

+7 résultats de plus

Volume total

Will the Clarity Act become law?

Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt40%
Before Jul 1, 2027-5.0pt37%
Before Oct 1, 2027-16.0pt33%

+7 résultats de plus

When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?

Before 2028+3.0pt67%
Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%

+8 résultats de plus

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
Before Jan 1, 202795%
Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%

+9 résultats de plus

Volume total: 1,4 M €

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

$1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20.4%
$1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
$1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.4%

+5 résultats de plus

Questions fréquentes

Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available? ?: Manifold Markets cote Yes à 90% au 8 septembre 2026.
Quand Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available? sera-t-il résolu ?: Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
Comment Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available? est-il réglé ?: Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria

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