Manifold MarketsFerméSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréCe marché est fermé et en attente d'une résolution confirmée.
Données de résolution non vérifiées
Ce résultat est inféré ou n'est pas appuyé par des preuves de règlement de niveau fournisseur.
Prévision communautaire actuelle≥$1T 100%En tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
40
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 28 jours
Obsolète22 avr. 26, 3:491 juil. 26, 3:59
Chronologie des Probabilités
≥$1T100%
≥$1.25T100%
≥$1.5T97.6%
≥$1.75T94%
≥$2T72.8%
≥$2.25T81.1%
≥$2.5T42.3%
≥$3T1%
1%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Ce marché est clôturé. Le trading fictif n'est disponible que sur les marchés ouverts.
Comparer les plateformes· ≥$1T
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h| Plateforme | Qualité | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketMeilleur global72% de correspondance · vérifié | Faible | 100% | — | 12,3 k € | 0 € | il y a 27 jours | Ouvrir → |
| Manifold MarketsCette page | — | 100% | — | — | — | il y a 28 jours |
Également disponible sur Polymarket
Will SpaceX's valuation hit __ by June 30?
0.7 ptsFermés
+3.5pt100%
+65.3pt100%
+3.7pt100%
+12 résultats de plus
19 • Faible qualitéSpread inconnuFaible liquidité
Volume total2,7 M €
Volume 24h12,3 k €
POLYMARKETRègles
Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for SpaceX credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-06-30.
- Pre-IPO: valuation is set by primary funding rounds, tender offers, or IPO pricing.
- Secondary transactions between existing investors do not count — they reflect individual trades, not company-endorsed valuation events.
- Post-IPO: valuation = peak market cap between IPO and 2026-06-30 (highest closing share price × shares outstanding at that time).
- ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO at close.
- Company announcements; SEC filings (S-1, 424B, 10-Q, 10-K); major financial press (The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ).
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Marchés Associés
SpaceX highest valuation by end of December 2027
114,1 €≥$2T: 100%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?
87,8 €Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization": 78.6%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSOpenAI highest valuation by end of September 2026
38 €≥$0.6T: 100%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Anthropic IPO by __?
11,4 k €December 31,: 69%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
6,2 k €Before Sep 1, 2026: 2%
KALSHI
KALSHI
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
5,4 k €Before Oct 1, 2026: 17%KALSHI
KALSHIActifs dans ces sujets
Actualités Associées
CFTC Flags ‘Cookie-Cutter’ Self-Certification in Prediction MarketsBlockchain Reporter
White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk
Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News
Russia passes landmark crypto bill allowing regulated retail tradingThe Block
Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt
White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraphRègles
Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for SpaceX credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-06-30.
- Pre-IPO: valuation is set by primary funding rounds, tender offers, or IPO pricing.
- Secondary transactions between existing investors do not count — they reflect individual trades, not company-endorsed valuation events.
- Post-IPO: valuation = peak market cap between IPO and 2026-06-30 (highest closing share price × shares outstanding at that time).
- ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO at close.
- Company announcements; SEC filings (S-1, 424B, 10-Q, 10-K); major financial press (The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ).