Should I expect Democrats to win back the house in 2026 midterm election?
42.0 pts (24h)PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlectionÉlections de mi-mandat américaines 202628j
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleYes, Democrats will win back the House 92%+42.0pt
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+42.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète31 oct. 26, 18:06 UTC30 nov. 26, 11:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Democrats win back the House in 2026 ?
Manifold MarketsWill Democrats win back the house in 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill "Why we should expect ruthless sociopath ASI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill Democrats lose the house in the 2026 midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsWill any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?
PolymarketHow many House seats will Republicans win in the 2026 midterm election?
PredictItRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves based on the official outcome of the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections.
- Each answer option will resolve independently as follows:
- "the named outcome": Resolves YES if the Democratic Party wins at least 218 seats (or a majority of the seats contested) in the 2026 U.S. House elections, thereby taking majority control of the chamber for the 120th Congress.
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
- "the named outcome": Resolves YES if the Republican Party retains at least 218 seats (or a working majority) following the 2026 midterm elections.
