Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 85.5%
Prévisionnistes
44
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 minutes
11 avr. 26, 14:01 UTC3 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Sweden Democrats back or be in government after next election?
Manifold MarketsPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
PolymarketWill Netanyahu visit New York City by which date?
PolymarketWill the US officially declare war on Iran by which date?
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KalshiWill Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Democratic Party secures a majority of seats in the United States House of Representatives following the 2026 midterm elections.
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
- Resolution will be determined by the official certification of results by the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives and reports from authoritative news outlets such as the Associated Press.
- If the control of the House remains unclear due to contested results, legal challenges, or a split that prevents a majority, the market will resolve based on which party is recognized as the majority in the opening session of the 120th Congress.
- The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections will determine the composition of the 120th Congress.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
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POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Democrats win back the House in 2026 ? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 86% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Democrats win back the House in 2026 ? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Democrats win back the House in 2026 ? doit être résolu le 3 novembre 2026.
- Comment Will Democrats win back the House in 2026 ? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria