Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 80%
Prévisionnistes
38
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète15 nov. 22, 01:45 UTC31 déc. 32, 22:17 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Sam Bankman-Fried author a book that will be an New York Times bestseller before 2075?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Bankman Fried receive a criminal penalty at least as severe as life imprisonment with the possibility of parole before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Bankman-Fried convert to Islam in prison?
Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketWhich Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if pardoned or granted clemency by a president, monarch, etc.
- Prosecutorial discretion doesn't count.
- Jury nullification doesn't count.
- Judicial sentencing discretion doesn't count.
Marchés ouverts
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- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
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POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
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+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
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POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
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+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Sam Bankman-Fried gets pardoned or granted clemency by EOY 2032 ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 80% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Sam Bankman-Fried gets pardoned or granted clemency by EOY 2032 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Sam Bankman-Fried gets pardoned or granted clemency by EOY 2032 doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2032.
- Comment Sam Bankman-Fried gets pardoned or granted clemency by EOY 2032 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if pardoned or granted clemency by a president, monarch, etc.