Post US Midterms 2026 Iran Conflict props
3.4 pts (24h)Matières premièresOne-OffActionsPolitiquePolitique américaineÉlectionGéopolitiqueMoyen-OrientÉlections de mi-mandat américaines 20261mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleIf the US or Israel strike Iran Nov 4-30, will WTI oil futures be higher 10 days later? 58.4%+3.4ptEn tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
1
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+3.4 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète24 oct. 26, 18:35 UTC15 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Iran Conflict Props
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 turnout exceed 2022? (US midterms, percentage)
Manifold MarketsWill control of the House and Senate be called by midnight (PT) on election night in the 2026 US Midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill a PS5 cost >%10 more to US consumers as a result of tariffs before the 2026 US midterms?
Manifold Markets[poll/stock - never resolves] How do Americans view Donald Trump’s political rhetoric (independent of politics)?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This is an independent multiple-choice market.
- Each option will resolve individually to YES, NO, or N/A based on whether its specific condition is met between November 4, 2026, and the date specified in the option.
- Options containing conditional clauses ("If...") resolve N/A if their qualifying precondition does not occur during the specified evaluation window.
- "If the US or Israel strike Iran Nov 4-30, will WTI oil futures be higher 10 days later?":
- Precondition: Confirmed military kinetic strike conducted by the US military or Israeli Defense Forces against a target located within Iranian sovereign territory between November 4, 2026, 00:00 UTC and November 30, 2026, 23:59 UTC, reported by credible international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP).
