Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 83.3%
Prévisionnistes
81
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète4 juil. 25, 14:35 UTC30 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will control of the House and Senate be called by midnight (PT) on election night in the 2026 US Midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill average air fares exceed $355 in Q2 2026 in the US?
ForecastExWill average air fares exceed $385 in Q2 2026 in the US?
ForecastExWill average air fares exceed $345 in Q2 2026 in the US?
ForecastExPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRègles
Will turnout in the 2026 midterm exceed that of the 2022 midterm?
- Turnout calculated as total voter turnout as percent of citizen voting age population (CVAP).
- The official source will be the 2026 Election Administration and Voting Survey from the Election Assistance Commission.
- In 2022, turnout was 46.8% (112,054,124 voters out of 239,035,960 CVAP).
- The report is not expected until late June; if a consensus of credible reporting is available sooner, and this market is priced stably, it may resolve early.
- If things are close or unclear, we may have to wait for the report.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
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- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will 2026 turnout exceed 2022? (US midterms, percentage) ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 83% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will 2026 turnout exceed 2022? (US midterms, percentage) sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will 2026 turnout exceed 2022? (US midterms, percentage) doit être résolu le 30 novembre 2026.
- Comment Will 2026 turnout exceed 2022? (US midterms, percentage) est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Will turnout in the 2026 midterm exceed that of the 2022 midterm?