Will 2026 turnout exceed 2022? (US midterms, percentage)
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection1mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 83.1%
Prévisionnistes
84
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète4 juil. 25, 14:35 UTC30 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
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ForecastExRègles
Will turnout in the 2026 midterm exceed that of the 2022 midterm?
- Turnout calculated as total voter turnout as percent of citizen voting age population (CVAP).
- The official source will be the 2026 Election Administration and Voting Survey from the Election Assistance Commission.
- In 2022, turnout was 46.8% (112,054,124 voters out of 239,035,960 CVAP).
- The report is not expected until late June; if a consensus of credible reporting is available sooner, and this market is priced stably, it may resolve early.
- If things are close or unclear, we may have to wait for the report.
