Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 92.1%
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète7 nov. 25, 19:08 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?
Manifold MarketsMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ?
Manifold MarketsBy the end of 2028, will the lowest cost way to generate AI compute be in space?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketOpenAI’s valuation end of September 2026?
PolymarketOpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution Criteria
- Resolves YES if by 11:59 PM PT on December 31, 2026, OpenAI offers AI compute services (training or inference) to external customers through ANY of the following:
- Public cloud service offering:
- Publicly accessible platform where customers can purchase/rent compute
- Website or portal allowing sign-ups for compute access
- Published pricing for compute hours/tokens
Marchés ouverts
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.2pt94%
- Yes-1.2pt6%
- Volume total
- 19,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 263 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-10.0pt69%
- December 15,-13.5pt65%
- November 30,-12.0pt49%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt91%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+2.0pt88%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-3.0pt83%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028+9.0pt34%
- Before Oct 1, 2027+6.0pt27%
- Before Apr 1, 202717%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 7 M €
KALSHIWhen will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Before Jan 1, 202878%
- Before Jul 1, 202733%
- Before Jan 1, 20277%
- Volume total
- 13 k €
- Volume 24h
- 8,1 k €
POLYMARKETDiscord IPO Closing Market Cap
- No IPO by December 31, 2027-16.1pt62.6%
- 8–11B+6.7pt10.1%
- 11–14B-0.1pt8.1%
+5 résultats de plus
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will crypto market structure legislation become law?
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
- When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 92% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution Criteria