Leopold Aschenbrenner makes no public statements of consequence for a 2-year period before 2035
One-OffIA8aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 60.9%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète10 juin 24, 13:57 UTC1 janv. 35, 15:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Former OpenAI superalignment team member Leopold Aschenbrenner drops off the radar for a two-year period sometime before 2035.
- Resolves as YES if he makes no public statements about AI or anything else of consequence (politics, economics, strategy, technology) for a two-year period.
- Public statements include public declassified articles, tweets, blog posts, whatever.
- If Leopold suddenly becomes a Red Sox fan and tweets about their wins and losses, that doesn't count as a statement of consequence.
- If Leopold tweets that he believes AI researchers should receive 24-7 secret service security details for national security reasons, then that is a statement about AI and national security, so it is a statement of consequence.
