Israel election: Who will be the next prime minister?
27.5 pts (24h)PolitiqueOne-OffÉlectionMoyen-Orient2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleGadi Eizenkot 42.4%+27.5ptEn tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
102
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-1.6 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 minutes
15 juil. 26, 18:59 UTC30 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
PolymarketWill Israel election happen as scheduled?
PolymarketIsrael Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?
PolymarketIsrael election: Which party will win the most seats?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the results of Israel's next election?
Manifold MarketsPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the first individual who is officially sworn in as the Prime Minister of Israel by the Knesset following the next legislative election (scheduled for October 27, 2026, or sooner if a snap election is triggered beforehand).
- "Sworn In" Definition: The resolution will be determined by the first person who successfully forms a government and takes the oath of office in the Knesset.
- In the event of a rotational premiership agreement, the individual who serves as Prime Minister first will be the resolving winner.
- Hung Knesset: This option will resolve to YES if the Knesset elected in the next election fails to form a governing coalition within the legally mandated timeframe.
- A caretaker Prime Minister continuing to serve in an interim capacity during this political deadlock does not count as being sworn in for a new term.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
- Également disponible sur Gemini — Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? · Gadi Eizenkot 51%
- Également disponible sur Kalshi — Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? · Gadi Eizenkot 46%
- Également disponible sur Manifold Markets — Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Gadi Eisenkot 61%
- Également disponible sur Limitless — Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after next election? · Gadi Eizenkot 55%
- — Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?