Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 74.5%
Prévisionnistes
31
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète6 févr. 24, 15:59 UTC1 janv. 00, 15:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
OpenAI discovers room-temperature superconductor before EOY?
Manifold MarketsIs rationalussy the secret ingredient to a room temperature superconductor?
Manifold MarketsWill strong AGI be achieved before we discover a room temperature superconductor like LK-99?
Manifold MarketsIf the Room-Temperature Superconductor is not real, will calculating a 2048-bit RSA Key Cost <$1000 in 2030?
Manifold MarketsNear room-temperature Meissner effect in 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 18, 2026?
KalshiRègles
I find it interesting that both are basically computational problems - simulating plasma physics or material science.
- This market resolves true if a room temperature superconductor is officially found (and recognized by the scientific community) before a company manages to achieve net fusion energy production.
- If the opposite happens, the outcome is false.
- N/A if neither happens in this century.
