Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 91.5%
Prévisionnistes
22
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète31 juil. 26, 02:18 UTC1 févr. 27, 03:17 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms?
KalshiMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
PolymarketWill Mitch McConnell speak this year?
Manifold MarketsWill Mitch McConnell die in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Mitch McConnell be alive on January 3, 2027? (End of his Senate term)
Manifold MarketsWill Mitch McConnell resign in 2026?
PredictItRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, by January 31, 2027 it is officially confirmed by Senator Mitch McConnell’s office, his family, his medical team, or a consensus of reputable major news organizations (such as the Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Times, or CNN) that McConnell is medically brain-dead or on life support.
- This market will resolve to NO if:
- McConnell delivers a public, verbal address or appears in a live, unedited video proving conscious cognitive function, OR
- No official or credible confirmation of brain death or life support is made public by January 31, 2027, OR
- He is officially announced to have passed away without a preceding, publicly confirmed state of being brain-dead or kept on life support.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Is Mitch McConnell on life support and/or brain dead? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 92% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Is Mitch McConnell on life support and/or brain dead? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Is Mitch McConnell on life support and/or brain dead? doit être résolu le 1 février 2027.
- Comment Is Mitch McConnell on life support and/or brain dead? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria