Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.
PolitiqueGéopolitiqueOne-OffUS PoliticsÉlectionMiddle East3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 74.9%
Prévisionnistes
31
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète8 oct. 24, 09:00 UTC1 janv. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a nuclear weapon be used in a war by the end of this decade?
Manifold MarketsWill any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill a non-test nuclear weapon detonate by 2030?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by which date?
PolymarketWill the US officially declare war on Iran by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Conditional Market based on this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20482/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030/
- This question will resolve as Yes if the Iranian Government credibly states that it has a nuclear weapon or has tested a nuclear weapon at any time between January 1, 2020 to January 1, 2030, according to credible media reports.
- For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.
- For the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).
- The deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) will be sufficient to resolve this question as Yes.
- Purchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as Yes.
