Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.
PolitiqueGéopolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlectionMoyen-Orient3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 74.9%
Prévisionnistes
31
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 43 minutes
8 oct. 24, 09:00 UTC1 janv. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
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FutuurRègles
Conditional Market based on this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20482/iran-obtains-nuclear-weapon-by-2030/
- This question will resolve as Yes if the Iranian Government credibly states that it has a nuclear weapon or has tested a nuclear weapon at any time between January 1, 2020 to January 1, 2030, according to credible media reports.
- For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.
- For the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).
- The deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) will be sufficient to resolve this question as Yes.
- Purchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as Yes.
