Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
2024 100%En tête parmi 7 options
2024 100%Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète2 déc. 23, 12:30 UTC2 janv. 31, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
In what years there will be blog posts at https://blog.val.town/
Manifold MarketsIn 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?
Manifold MarketsWill I publish 2 blog posts a month every month in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill "Announcing RoastMyPost: LLMs Eval Blog Posts ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWill Discord’s IPO Closing Market Cap be above $20 Billion?
MyriadRègles
This market is about a startup GitButler https://gitbutler.com/
- I'm iterested will this startup succeed and as a proxy metric for this I have decided to check if there are blog posts in the official blog https://blog.gitbutler.com/
- This market is "Multiple choice" with the settings:
- * Who can add new answers later? — No one
- * How many answers will be chosen? — Any number
- Each answer is a year.
