In 2028, will a publicly available AI be able to generate a full high-quality film to a prompt?
DivertissementIAOne-Off1a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 84.4%
Prévisionnistes
36
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 heures
Obsolète10 juil. 23, 18:56 UTC2 janv. 28, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?
Manifold MarketsIn early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?
Manifold MarketsTime's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiTIME Person of the Year 2026
PolymarketRègles
Based on this question:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener)However, Scott's question description says: "The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist."
- This market is about whether the AI will be publicly available.
- I intend to interpret "publicly available" quite strictly.
- It has to be possible for a normal person to obtain.
- This is codified as follows: