If Trump won the election, Will the U.S. be more democratic in 2025 than it was in 2022?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 96.4%
Prévisionnistes
32
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète13 janv. 24, 05:59 UTC31 déc. 26, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
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KalshiWill Democrats win a 2026 Governor election in a state trump won?
Manifold MarketsWill the 2028 Democratic presidential candidate win any state trump won by 10% or more in 2024?
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KalshiRègles
If Trump won the election, will the U.S. be more democratic in 2025 than 2022?
- This market will resolve YES if the 2025 democracy index for the United States released by the EIU is higher than 7.85, NO if it's less than or equal to 7.85
- Resolves NA if Trump didnt win the 2024 presidential election
- Economic Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index
- Compare the price against this market to estimate if Trump will worsen Democracy in the US
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/AmmonLam/if-biden-won-the-election-will-the)