How many Trump-won districts will Democrats win in 2026?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection1mois
KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréMilieu du carnet sélectionné
At least 10 · —
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
—
Prix enregistré
At least 10 98.5%En tête parmi 13 options
At least 10 98.5%Qualité du marché
49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Intérêt ouvert
4,2 k $US
Intérêt ouvert moyenAchat / Vente
— / —
At least 10Écart
—
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 minutes
20 août 26, 14:00 UTC15 déc. 26, 14:59 UTC
Le graphique et les variations affichent les probabilités historiques enregistrées, pas le carnet sélectionné en direct.
Tendances
Ligne sélectionnée : milieu du carnet. Autres lignes : références enregistrées, éventuellement normalisées ; les variations sur 24h utilisent l’historique enregistré.
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Profondeur du marché · At least 10
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
—
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which Washington State Congressional districts will Democrats win in the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWhich New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWhich Iowa congressional districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWhich Texas House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?
PolymarketWill Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
PolymarketRègles
If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 35 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The qualifying districts are the 235 in which Trump received more votes than Harris in 2024, as calculated by The Downballot in its 2024 presidential results by congressional district table, for the district boundaries in use at the 2026 elections. That list is fixed as of Issuance and identified by state and district number, so later boundary changes and revisions to the 2024 vote totals do NOT add or remove districts. A district counts only if the candidate elected there at the November 3, 2026 general election, for the term beginning January 3, 2027, is listed on the ballot as a Democrat (including Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party), including as preferring the Democratic Party where a state uses an open, top-two or top-four ballot. If a runoff is required to determine the winner of any race, the runoff result governs. Independent and third-party winners do NOT count, even if they caucus with Democrats.
Règles de chaque résultat
- At least 10
- If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 10 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 19
- If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 19 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 22
- If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 22 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 13
- If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 13 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 16
- If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 16 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 25
- If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 25 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 28
- If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 28 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 31
- If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 31 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 35
- If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 35 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 40
- If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 40 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 46
- If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 46 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 52
- If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 52 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 58
- If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 58 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.