If Trump wins, will the US homicide rate decrease?
PolitiqueOne-OffÉlectionPolitique américaineCriminalité et justice7jManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 90.7%
Prévisionnistes
30
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète10 mars 24, 17:05 UTC3 nov. 26, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Trump wins, will the US suicide rate decrease between his inauguration and the 2026 Midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill any of the following Western countries experience a national homicide rate above 10 per 100,000 per year before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the cop who shot Nahel M. be found guilty of homicide?
Manifold MarketsWill any January 6th participant pardoned/commuted by Trump be responsible for a homicide before 1/20/2027?
Manifold MarketsTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
PolymarketTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
According to a report by the Council on Criminal Justice, peak in 2023 was 1.8 per 100,000 population, averaged across 18 metros:
- https://infogram.com/ct_report-homicide-1hmr6g7pmkyqo6n
- https://counciloncj.org/year-end-2023-crime-trends/
- Resolved based on the CCJ’s 2026 report, published after the 2026 midterm elections.
- Market closes just before the 2026 midterms.
- Update 14 Mar 24: This market resolves NA if Trump doesn’t win.
