If Trump wins, will the US homicide rate decrease?
PolitiqueOne-OffÉlectionUS PoliticsCrime & Justice1moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 65.7%
Prévisionnistes
28
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète10 mars 24, 17:05 UTC3 nov. 26, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Trump wins, will the US suicide rate decrease between his inauguration and the 2026 Midterms?
Manifold MarketsTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
PolymarketWill the cop who shot Nahel M. be found guilty of homicide?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, will cannabis be decriminalized or legalized by the midterms?
Manifold MarketsTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketWill Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
According to a report by the Council on Criminal Justice, peak in 2023 was 1.8 per 100,000 population, averaged across 18 metros:
- https://infogram.com/ct_report-homicide-1hmr6g7pmkyqo6n
- https://counciloncj.org/year-end-2023-crime-trends/
- Resolved based on the CCJ’s 2026 report, published after the 2026 midterm elections.
- Market closes just before the 2026 midterms.
- Update 14 Mar 24: This market resolves NA if Trump doesn’t win.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 691,8 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,1 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,6 M €
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour If Trump wins, will the US homicide rate decrease? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 66% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand If Trump wins, will the US homicide rate decrease? sera-t-il résolu ?
- If Trump wins, will the US homicide rate decrease? doit être résolu le 3 novembre 2026.
- Comment If Trump wins, will the US homicide rate decrease? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : According to a report by the Council on Criminal Justice, peak in 2023 was 1.8 per 100,000 population, averaged across 18 metros: