Prévision communautaire actuelle
Other 47.3%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
22
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard3 juil. 24, 01:56 UTC22 janv. 29, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Donald Trump be president of the United States on 12/31/2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump be President at any point in 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill 110 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day while Trump is President?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI professional-impersonation bill become law in New York?
KalshiU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWill the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030?
KalshiRègles
Resolves to “the named outcome” if the named outcome, otherwise to name of individual appointee.
- If Trump ceases being President for any reason, will be the successor President(s) within same presidential term.
- Update 2025-12-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve to a confirmed appointee in the Director role, not an Acting director or someone serving under a Presidential Delegated Duty (PDD).
- Acting directors do not qualify for resolution.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Other à 47% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management? sera-t-il résolu ?
- If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management? doit être résolu le 22 janvier 2029.
- Comment If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves to “the named outcome” if the named outcome, otherwise to name of individual appointee.