If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will Trump's approval rating be 40% or higher on January 1, 2028?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaine1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 75.3%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 55 minutes
En retard7 oct. 26, 02:14 UTC2 janv. 28, 17:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Democrats win the House in 2026, will Trump's approval rating be 40% or higher on January 1, 2028?
Manifold MarketsIf Republicans keep the House in 2026, will Trump veto at least 5 bills in 2027?
Manifold MarketsIf Republicans keep the House in 2026, will Bitcoin be above $150,000 at the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsIf Republicans keep the House in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?
Manifold MarketsTrump's approval rating on Oct 23, 2026?
KalshiWill Trump's approval rating increase this week? (10/16-10/23)
KalshiRègles
Condition: Republicans win a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026 elections (at least 218 seats won by Republican Party candidates, counting delegations as certified; independents count for neither party).
- If Democrats or no party win a majority, this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if VoteHub's polling average of Donald Trump's job approval is 40.0% or higher for January 1, 2028 (the value VoteHub shows for that date).
- If VoteHub's average is unavailable, uses the RealClearPolling average instead.
- Resolves NO otherwise, and N/A if Trump is not President on that date.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Democrats win the House.
