If Manifold begins allowing real-money withdrawals, will its accuracy improve?
One-OffPlateformes d'échangeTech13a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 63.6%
Oui 63.6%Prévisionnistes
48
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète17 nov. 22, 17:04 UTC1 janv. 40, 05:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
I'll allow any reasonable type of scoring to demonstrate this, such as the ones described here.
- (With appropriate corrections for multiple-comparisons bias if someone tries a bunch of different metrics.)
- Proving causality would be next-to-impossible for something like this, so I'm only going to require that there be enough of a difference between the score before the change and the score afterwards that it seems plausible this was the cause.
