Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 65.3%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète4 avr. 26, 12:21 UTC15 août 29, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If this person is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK election after 2024, will the PM be Labour?
Manifold MarketsIf this party wins in Gorton and Denton, will the PM after the next general election be Labour?
Manifold MarketsIf Reform's change in council seats in the local elections is this, will there be a general election in 2026 or 2027?
Manifold MarketsHolborn and St Pancras By-Election - Labour to Win
SmarketsNZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?
PolymarketNZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote)
PolymarketRègles
The 2026 local elections are upcoming! ~5000 councillors in local councils are going to be up for election, 2000 of whom are currently members of the Labour Party.
- It's possible that this will be an indicator of whether the Labour Party is actually doing okay, or if they need to try a different strategy.
- The reason for the condition is to try to make the market causal on Starmer leaving, by screening off the evidential correlation that Starmer is more likely to stay on if Labour is doing well.
- The complement conditional on Starmer staying is
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Tetraspace/if-labour-loses-1000-council-seats-gPUU59gIC5)This resolves N/A if Labour doesn't lose over 1000 council seats (either it loses less than 1000 seats, or it gains seats), or if Starmer doesn't leave in 2026.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour If Labour loses >1000 council seats & Starmer leaves as PM in 2026, will PM after next election be Labour? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 65% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand If Labour loses >1000 council seats & Starmer leaves as PM in 2026, will PM after next election be Labour? sera-t-il résolu ?
- If Labour loses >1000 council seats & Starmer leaves as PM in 2026, will PM after next election be Labour? doit être résolu le 15 août 2029.
- Comment If Labour loses >1000 council seats & Starmer leaves as PM in 2026, will PM after next election be Labour? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The 2026 local elections are upcoming! ~5000 councillors in local councils are going to be up for election, 2000 of whom are currently members of the Labour Party.