Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleLabour LOSES next General Election (led by Andy Burnham, using FPTP) 40.8%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète18 mai 26, 17:38 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Andy Burnham Prime Minister longer than Boris Johnson?
Manifold MarketsWill Andy Burnham lead Labour to the next general election?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next leader of the Labour Party after Andy Burnham?
Manifold MarketsAndy Burnham out as UK PM by which date?
PolymarketWhat will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
PolymarketWhat will Andy Burnham say during Prime Minister's Questions?
KalshiRègles
‘Win’ means wins the most seats in parliament.
- I have included as separate scenarios the possibility that he might change the voting system (to something other than FPTP) before the next General Election.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour IF Andy Burnham leads Labour into the next General Election, will Labour win? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Labour LOSES next General Election (led by Andy Burnham, using FPTP) à 41% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand IF Andy Burnham leads Labour into the next General Election, will Labour win? sera-t-il résolu ?
- IF Andy Burnham leads Labour into the next General Election, will Labour win? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment IF Andy Burnham leads Labour into the next General Election, will Labour win? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : ‘Win’ means wins the most seats in parliament.