Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle5+ 81%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète12 janv. 26, 01:25 UTC3 janv. 27, 01:25 UTC
Tendances
0.4%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
How many Cabinet members will Trump say he fired in 2026?
KalshiWhich Trump Cabinet members will remain in place by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any of the UN’s Security Council permanent members leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Donald Trump pardon any of his cabinet members from his second term?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRègles
Leaving means leaving cabinet altogether.
- If someone went from one position to another in the cabinet, they are still in the cabinet.
- leave means leave for any reason. resignation, firing, impeachment, death and anything else counts as leaving.
- if JD vance becomes president this counts as leaving the cabinet.
- must have officially left their role before end of 2026(washington dc time).
- Announcement isnt enough.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour How many US cabinet members will leave in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 5+ à 81% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand How many US cabinet members will leave in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- How many US cabinet members will leave in 2026? doit être résolu le 3 janvier 2027.
- Comment How many US cabinet members will leave in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Leaving means leaving cabinet altogether.