Prévision communautaire actuelle
1+ OpenAI employees resign 53.5%+3.5ptEn tête parmi 9 options
Prévisionnistes
48
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+3.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
10 sept. 26, 08:16 UTC3 oct. 26, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which of Anthropic and OpenAI will get more credit for the Navier-Stokes solution, in my judgement?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic vs OpenAI - greater valuation growth September 2026
PolymarketWill Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic or OpenAI introduce a US$2000 per month consumer-facing plan in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
PolymarketAnthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on the number of full-time employees of OpenAI or Anthropic who voluntarily resign, citing ethical reasons (including but not limited to risks of human extinction or disempowerment), or publicly announce that they will do so, during the month of September 2026, Pacific Time.
- Jacob Coxon counts as one such person for the purposes of this market.
- See his tweet about resigning from Anthropic, which went viral with 712K+ likes as of September 10.
- His resignation was covered in the Wall Street Journal.
- I'll wait for two extra days, in case any resignations happen during September but are only publicized later.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour How many Anthropic/OpenAI employees will resign in September 2026 due to ethical concerns? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 1+ OpenAI employees resign à 54% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand How many Anthropic/OpenAI employees will resign in September 2026 due to ethical concerns? sera-t-il résolu ?
- How many Anthropic/OpenAI employees will resign in September 2026 due to ethical concerns? doit être résolu le 3 octobre 2026.
- Comment How many Anthropic/OpenAI employees will resign in September 2026 due to ethical concerns? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria