Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle2080 or later 96.4%En tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète1 juin 25, 11:51 UTC31 déc. 99, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will South Korea's total fertility rate exceed 1 by 2035
Manifold MarketsIn twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?
Manifold MarketsUS fertility rate in 2030 >= 1.7 if (and only if) Taylor Swift announces a pregnancy by 2029?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the first year in which the global total fertility rate falls below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
- The TFR is defined as the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime based on current age-specific fertility rates.
- The resolution will be based on data from the United Nations Population Division, unless someone makes a compelling argue for using another source.
- The global TFR has been on a steady decline over the past several decades.
- In 1950, the global TFR was approximately 4.84 children per woman, which decreased to 2.23 by 2021.
Marchés ouverts
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-0.5pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.5pt27.7%
- <40-3.5pt15.8%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 30,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 18 k €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No90%
- Yes-70.0pt10%
- Volume total
- 8,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 7,7 k €
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Volume total
- 15,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 952,2 €
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Volume total
- 516,1 €
- Volume 24h
- 516,1 €
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Volume total
- 516,1 €
- Volume 24h
- 516,1 €
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+2.5pt81.2%
- Yes-2.5pt18.8%
- Volume total
- 136,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 419 €
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?
- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Global total fertility rate below 2.1 in what decade? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 2080 or later à 96% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Global total fertility rate below 2.1 in what decade? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Global total fertility rate below 2.1 in what decade? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2099.
- Comment Global total fertility rate below 2.1 in what decade? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria