Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 57.3%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard17 avr. 26, 23:37 UTC20 janv. 29, 11:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will real median income for family households in the US be higher in 2028 than in 2024?
Manifold MarketsGiven the Republican candidate wins the 2024 presidency, will the real median household income be more than $74,580?
Manifold MarketsGiven the Democratic candidate wins the 2024 presidency, will the real median household income be more than $74,580?
Manifold MarketsWill the Biden Administration’s “Export Control Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion” be annulled by EOY2027?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in October?
PolymarketTexas Senate winner?
KalshiRègles
Resolves according to the Real Median Household Adjusted Income After Taxes and Transfers Section of the Distribution of Household Income in 2024 report by The Congressional Budget Office.
- Here's the 2022 report.
- See the supplemental data excel sheet for the statistic.
- It fell 7.2% during the first 2 years according to the CBO, but rose during the last 2 years according to the sources I'm aware of that have published for those years.
- Our World in Data found it decreased 2.8% during the Biden administration, but that's a small enough decrease that differences in methodology could outweigh it.