Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 90.7%
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 heures
Obsolète18 avr. 25, 21:07 UTC31 déc. 50, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will we discover a new, (believed to be) non-composite particle by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill we be able to create or discover something that surpasses the speed of light by 2051?
Manifold Markets“Will we discover definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life by the end of 2030
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRègles
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K2-18b
- Resolves once conclusive evidence comes out either way.
- Perhaps we'll find out that it's not dimethyl sulfide at all, or that there's some abiotic way of creating it that's happening on K2-18b, or we'll find other unrelated signs of life to confirm that it's there.
- Unlike all the other markets about K2-18b, this one stays upon for as long as is necessary to find out for sure.
- So it could be a while, but this is the "real" number, not just "will we find out within a certain number of months".
- (This market is about whether the recent discovery is valid, not about whether there's life at all.)
Marchés ouverts
SportsKALSHIShelton vs Alcaraz
- Ben Shelton+49.0pt70.3%
- Carlos Alcaraz-49.0pt29.7%
- Volume total
- 22,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 21,2 M €
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Quarter Finals match
- Ben Shelton+1.0pt59.7%
- Carlos Alcaraz40.3%
- Volume total
- 459,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 5,6 M €
POLYMARKETUS Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz
- Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 9.5+37.5pt100%
- Alcaraz Set 2 Winner+67.5pt100%
- Alcaraz Total Sets: O/U 3.5+39.5pt100%
+23 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona18.1%
- Arsenal15.2%
- Bayern Munich13.3%
+33 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 24,6 M €
KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R13.9%
- Buffalo6.6%
- Seattle6.6%
+29 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 74 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,9 M €
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Alexander Zverev+11.0pt38%
- Ben Shelton+20.0pt28%
- Carlos Alcaraz-37.0pt19%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 25,8 M €
- Amgen Irish Open Winner
- MVP Winner?
- New England vs Seattle
- Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz: Exact Match Score
- Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz: Set 3 Winner
- Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B
- Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz: Total Games
- 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
- Heisman Trophy Winner
- Barcelona vs Feyenoord
- College Football National Championship Winner
- Counter-Strike: 5star vs TheMongolz (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Did humanity discover life on K2-18b? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 91% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Did humanity discover life on K2-18b? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Did humanity discover life on K2-18b? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2050.
- Comment Did humanity discover life on K2-18b? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K2-18b