Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 99%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète6 janv. 26, 00:52 UTC1 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Dan Goldman win the New York 10th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
ForecastEx2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketMichigan Senate winner?
KalshiMassachusetts Governor winner?
KalshiRègles
Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.
- Source: [Predictions for 2026](https://www.slowboring.com/i/181456375/predictions-for) Yglesias assigned 80% probability to this prediction.
- Original prediction: "Dan Goldman loses his primary in NY-10" Resolution: Will resolve based on Yglesias' own assessment in his January 2027 review post.
- If he doesn't publish one, market creator will resolve based on the outcome.
- Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator may resolve early if reminded for cut and dry cases like this, rather than waiting for Yglesias' January 2027 review post.