Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 63.7%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète9 févr. 24, 17:31 UTC2 janv. 30, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Credible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2030
Manifold MarketsCredible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2028
Manifold MarketsWill credible evidence emerge linking Richard David Precht to Putin before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill it be reported that Joe Biden used Ambien before the 2024 presidential debate?
KalshiPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRègles
This will resolve based on mainstream media reports.
- Any kind of dementia counts.
- Outside speculation does not count, unless the evidence is so strong that mainstream media consensus emerges.
- I do not bet on my markets.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
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- J.D. Vance50%
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
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- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
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- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
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- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Credible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2030 ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 64% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Credible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2030 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Credible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2030 doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2030.
- Comment Credible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2030 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This will resolve based on mainstream media reports.