Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 84.8%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète3 janv. 24, 21:04 UTC2 janv. 30, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Credible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2030
Manifold MarketsCredible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2028
Manifold MarketsWill credible evidence emerge linking Richard David Precht to Putin before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump attend UFC 331?
KalshiDonald Trump # Truth Social posts September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketDonald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)
KalshiRègles
This will resolve based on mainstream media reports.
- Any kind of dementia counts.
- Outside speculation does not count, unless the evidence is so strong that mainstream media consensus emerges.
- https://www.newsweek.com/stop-talking-about-bidens-mental-acuity-start-talking-about-trumps-signs-dementia-opinion-1853741
- I do not bet on my markets.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
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POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
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POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
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KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Credible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2030 ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 85% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Credible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2030 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Credible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2030 doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2030.
- Comment Credible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2030 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This will resolve based on mainstream media reports.