Conditional on Trump getting elected, how will the US democracy index have changed by the end of his term.
Politique2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Decrease drastically (>= 0.68 && <= 0.72) 35.6%En tête parmi 6 options
Decrease drastically (>= 0.68 && <= 0.72) 35.6%Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète9 oct. 24, 21:21 UTC31 mars 29, 21:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
How much will US democracy weaken under Trump?
KalshiIf Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)
Manifold MarketsConditional on Trump buying Greenland, how much will the US pay?
Manifold MarketsConditional on trump being reelected in 2024, will he become a dictator?
Manifold MarketsConditional on Trump assuming the presidency in 2025, will he be ousted by a military coup?
Manifold MarketsWill the next elected US president be a woman?
PolymarketRègles
WIll resolve based on the Electoral Deomcracy Index from our world in data which is based on the V-Dem report.
- 2023 the US got 0.85.
- Will resolve to NA if trump is not elected in 2024 (all mana returned).
- Otherwise, will resolve once the data for 2028 is released (probably march 2029).
- https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy?tab=chart&time=1975..latest&showSelectionOnlyInTable=1&country=~USA&Dataset=Varieties+of+Democracy&Metric=Electoral+democracy&Sub-metric=Main+index
- For reference the following indexes were given in 2023.