Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 92.4%
Prévisionnistes
22
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète7 févr. 25, 15:15 UTC1 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the carried interest loophole be closed?
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PolymarketRègles
By December 31, 2026, will a piece of federal legislation be enacted (i.e. passed by both chambers of Congress and signed into law, or otherwise become effective) that eliminates or substantially restricts the preferential tax treatment of carried interest for private equity and hedge fund managers?
- Background & Rationale:
- The carried interest tax treatment lets fund managers pay tax at the lower long‐term capital gains rate (roughly 20%) on performance-based income, rather than the higher ordinary income rate (up to about 37%).
- President Trump has repeatedly stated that ending this “loophole” is a priority.
- However, previous attempts—even when championed by Trump—have stalled due to intra-party divisions, strong lobbying by influential financial industry groups, and the challenge of fitting such a change into a broader tax reform package.
- Resolution Criteria:
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026 ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 92% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026 doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : By December 31, 2026, will a piece of federal legislation be enacted (i.e. passed by both chambers of Congress and signed into law, or otherwise become effective) that eliminates or substantially restricts the preferential tax treatment of carried interest for private equity and hedge fund managers?