By 2040, will we believe the Great Sphinx was built substantially before the pyramids at Giza?
One-OffSociety & Culture14aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 74.6%
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10
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
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Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète9 août 23, 07:00 UTC1 janv. 41, 15:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
This is a popular theory, but one unaccepted by the mainstream.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Sphinx_of_Giza#History
- I am defining 'substantially before' as 'before the Fourth Dynasty' (which was when the pyramids at Giza were built).(approx. 2600 BC)
- 'we believe' is tricky.
- If, before 2040, the Wikipedia entry for the Great Sphinx says that an earlier build date is either generally accepted or just the most likely theory, this resolves YES (as long as the Wikipedia page has stabilised).
- If, on 1.1.2040, the Wikipedia page says that this question is unclear, and that an earlier build date is approximately similarly credible to alternatives, this will resolve to 50/50.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour By 2040, will we believe the Great Sphinx was built substantially before the pyramids at Giza? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 74.6% au 23 septembre 2026.
- Quand By 2040, will we believe the Great Sphinx was built substantially before the pyramids at Giza? sera-t-il résolu ?
- By 2040, will we believe the Great Sphinx was built substantially before the pyramids at Giza? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2041.
- Comment By 2040, will we believe the Great Sphinx was built substantially before the pyramids at Giza? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This is a popular theory, but one unaccepted by the mainstream.