By 2028 will someone who first started directing after completing a Masterclass/Online Course win an Oscar for direction
DivertissementOne-Off1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 85.8%
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20
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète31 mars 24, 00:22 UTC2 janv. 28, 12:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Daytime Emmy Awards: Outstanding Directing for a Daytime Non-Studio Non-Fiction Series
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Given https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener and how AI capabilities would need to evolve to be able to create a full movie what training materials and methodologies will be required vs what might be available online.
- A director is the closest analogy in human terms I could come up with to an AI pumping out a whole movie, so if we restrict our pool of human directors to people initially trained on the same information an AI might have then there is a reasonable comparison group to consider capability gain.
- Do you think that a director who wins an Oscar between now and 2028 will publicly acknowledge having gotten started using an online course on directing?
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour By 2028 will someone who first started directing after completing a Masterclass/Online Course win an Oscar for direction ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 86% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand By 2028 will someone who first started directing after completing a Masterclass/Online Course win an Oscar for direction sera-t-il résolu ?
- By 2028 will someone who first started directing after completing a Masterclass/Online Course win an Oscar for direction doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2028.
- Comment By 2028 will someone who first started directing after completing a Masterclass/Online Course win an Oscar for direction est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Given https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener and how AI capabilities would need to evolve to be able to create a full movie what training materials and methodologies will be required vs what might be available online.