Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election?
PolitiqueOne-OffÉlectionLatin America25jManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleDatafolha 35.1%En tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète2 févr. 26, 19:33 UTC4 oct. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
Each answer resolves YES or NO independently.
- For each polling organization, consider their last publicly released national presidential voting-intention poll registered in TSE before election day (exclude exit polls / “boca de urna”).
- Let the top-2 candidates be the two candidates with the highest official 1st-round valid-vote share in the results published by Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE).
- A pollster’s answer resolves YES if both top-2 candidates’ poll estimates are within the poll’s stated margin of error (in percentage points) of the official result:
- For each of the two candidates: |poll_estimate − official_result| ≤ margin_of_error
- If either candidate is outside the margin → NO
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Datafolha à 35% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election? doit être résolu le 4 octobre 2026.
- Comment Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Each answer resolves YES or NO independently.