Brazil 2026 Election: Who Leads the Polling Average Two Months Before the Election? (1st Round)
PolitiqueOne-OffÉlectionSportsSoccerLatin America7jManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleLula 91.4%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 minutes
26 févr. 26, 12:414 août 26, 23:59
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
Lula91%
Tendance du volume
$5014 juil.2j de données15 juil.
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At 23:59 BRT on Aug 4, 2026, take the most recently published national voting-intention polls (first-round, President) from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ipec, AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, PoderData, and Ipespe.
- Only polls published within the last 15 days (i.e., Jul 20–Aug 4, 2026, inclusive) are eligible.
- Compute each candidate’s simple average (%) across the eligible polls (using the published topline national %).
- The market resolves to the candidate with the highest average.
- If tied, resolve to whoever is higher in the most recent eligible poll (then the next most recent, etc.) until the tie breaks.