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  • Accueil
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  1. Marchés de Prédiction
  2. Politique
  3. Brazil 2026 Election: Who Leads the Polling Average Two Months Before the Election? (1st Round)
Manifold Markets

Brazil 2026 Election: Who Leads the Polling Average Two Months Before the Election? (1st Round)

PolitiqueOne-OffÉlectionSportsSoccerLatin America1mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSans KYC
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Manifold Markets
Lula 85.9%
En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes

7

Type de question

multiple choice

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 5 jours

Obsolète
26 févr. 26, 12:414 août 26, 23:59

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Résultat choisi

Lula86%

Règles

At 23:59 BRT on Aug 4, 2026, take the most recently published national voting-intention polls (first-round, President) from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ipec, AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, PoderData, and Ipespe.

Manifold Markets
  • Only polls published within the last 15 days (i.e., Jul 20–Aug 4, 2026, inclusive) are eligible.
  • Compute each candidate’s simple average (%) across the eligible polls (using the published topline national %).
  • The market resolves to the candidate with the highest average.
  • If tied, resolve to whoever is higher in the most recent eligible poll (then the next most recent, etc.) until the tie breaks.

Marchés Associés

Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?

Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?

2,6 k €
Oui: 16%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Santa Catarina Governor Election Winner

Santa Catarina Governor Election Winner

1,9 k €
Jorginho Mello: 79%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Paraná Governor Election Winner

Paraná Governor Election Winner

802,7 €
Sergio Moro: 75%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Brazil Presidential election winner?

Brazil Presidential election winner?

163 €
Renan Santos: 15%KalshiKALSHI
Will Peru’s JNE annul the presidential election?

Will Peru’s JNE annul the presidential election?

20,4 €
Oui: 8%KalshiKALSHI
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

1,7 €
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 6%KalshiKALSHI

Actifs dans ces sujets

BitcoinBTC$62,601.90+2.24%SolanaSOL$65.10+1.51%EthereumETH$1,648.47+1.43%DogecoinDOGE$0.0849+1.63%XRPXRP$1.12+0.15%BNBBNB$594.96+1.59%

Actualités Associées

FIFA names Kraken official crypto exchange supporter for 2026 World CupCrypto NewsRussia election odds hold with United Russia leading at ~54.5%Blockchain.NewsPeru 2nd Round Bet Focus Narrows to Fujimori Narrow VictoryBlockchain.NewsSpain Dominates World Cup Knockout Trajectory, Polymarket Shows 98% OddsBlockchain.NewsBurnham Favored in Makerfield By-Election as Markets React to Rising OddsBlockchain.NewsCrypto PACs Shape Bets on Peru’s 2026 RaceBlockchain.News

Règles

At 23:59 BRT on Aug 4, 2026, take the most recently published national voting-intention polls (first-round, President) from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ipec, AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, PoderData, and Ipespe.

Manifold Markets
  • Only polls published within the last 15 days (i.e., Jul 20–Aug 4, 2026, inclusive) are eligible.
  • Compute each candidate’s simple average (%) across the eligible polls (using the published topline national %).
  • The market resolves to the candidate with the highest average.
  • If tied, resolve to whoever is higher in the most recent eligible poll (then the next most recent, etc.) until the tie breaks.