Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva 90%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+2.9 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète13 janv. 26, 21:08 UTC4 oct. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
PolymarketBrazil 2026 Election: Will all third-way candidates stay below 10%?
Manifold MarketsWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
PolymarketBrazil 2026 Election: Who will participate in at least one televised Brazilian presidential debate?
Manifold MarketsBrazil 2026 Election: Who will be elected State Governor in Rio de Janeiro (RJ)?
Manifold MarketsBrazil Presidential Election
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- A candidate must receive more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round to win outright.
- If no candidate does so, the top two candidates head to a runoff.
- The first round is scheduled for October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25 if needed.
- Resolution will be based on official results reported by the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) at https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/.
- A candidate resolves "Yes" if they advance to the runoff or win outright in the first round; otherwise "No".
Marchés ouverts
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- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Brazil 2026 Election: Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva à 90% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Brazil 2026 Election: Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Brazil 2026 Election: Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? doit être résolu le 4 octobre 2026.
- Comment Brazil 2026 Election: Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria