Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Any SOTA AI model uses human-understandable thinking medium at the end of 2028? ?

Manifold Markets cote Yes à 71.2% au 25 octobre 2026.

Any SOTA AI model uses human-understandable thinking medium at the end of 2028?

One-OffIA2a

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Oui 71.2%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 2 heures

Obsolète

22 oct. 25, 13:43 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

Must be a state of the art model (probably in the top 8), used by millions of people, not just a research project.

The guiding principle is that the market will resolve to YES if humans are able to follow the thinking process the AI is using.
This would likely include cases where:
The AI's thinking is a mixture of modalities (e.g., image, video, and text), as long as they're comprehensible to humans.
This would not include cases where the AI mostly thinks in "neuralese" latent space vectors, recurrent activations, incomprehensible image/video streams, or the model thinks in text but the text switches languages, uses whitespace meaningfully &c.
If in doubt I'll make the call.