Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
CryptoOne-OffPolitiquePolitique américaineÉlectionÉlections de mi-mandat américaines 202612j
LimitlessVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesGrossièrement calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Democratic Party 64.5%
Democratic Party 64.5%Qualité du marché
22 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Liquidité
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Liquidité inconnueDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
4 août 26, 13:37 UTC3 nov. 26, 00:00 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
LimitlessRègles
the named outcome · the named outcome.
Additional context — Updated Oct 2, 2026
This market's rules have been updated for clarity.
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election.
A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats.
- If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency.
- If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated.
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included.
- Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026.
- Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
- If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
3 plateformes cotent actuellement ce marché. La probabilité de référence inter-plateformes de CoinRithm pour Democratic Party est de 65%. Les plateformes ne s'accordent pas sur l'issue en tête.
Référence CoinRithm Democratic Party 65% · 3 plateformes · 0 pt d’ecart entre venues
- Également disponible sur ForecastEx — Will the Republican Party win a US Senate Majority in the 2026 general election? · No 64%
- Également disponible sur Kalshi — Which party will win the U.S. Senate? · Democratic Party 64%
- Également disponible sur Polymarket — Which party will win the Senate in 2026? · Democratic Party 64%
