Highest third-party vote share in a 2026 Senate race?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection2mois
KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréMilieu du carnet sélectionné
At least 2% · —
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
—
Prix enregistré
At least 2% 96.5%En tête parmi 9 options
At least 2% 96.5%Qualité du marché
36 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Intérêt ouvert
58,3 €
Intérêt ouvert faibleAchat / Vente
— / —
At least 2%Écart
—
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 30 minutes
28 sept. 26, 23:30 UTC3 janv. 27, 13:59 UTC
Le graphique et les variations affichent les probabilités historiques enregistrées, pas le carnet sélectionné en direct.
Tendances
Ligne sélectionnée : milieu du carnet. Autres lignes : références enregistrées, éventuellement normalisées ; les variations sur 24h utilisent l’historique enregistré.
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Profondeur du marché · At least 2%
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
—
Règles
If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 4.5% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A qualifying third-party candidate is a candidate recorded by the relevant state election authority under the name of a political party other than the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, or a recognized state affiliate of either (including the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and the North Dakota Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party). A minor party whose registered name contains the word "Independent" (for example, the Alaskan Independence Party) qualifies. Candidates recorded as Independent, Unaffiliated, Nonaffiliated, Nonpartisan, Undeclared, No Party, No Party Preference, No Party Affiliation, or under any other non-party or petition label do not qualify. A candidate who is also the Democratic or Republican nominee does not qualify. A candidate nominated only by one or more qualifying parties qualifies, and their votes across all such lines are combined. All U.S. Senate general elections held on November 3, 2026 are in scope, including special elections. Each qualifying candidate's figure is their share of all votes cast for that seat as certified by the relevant state election authority; in a ranked-choice contest, the first-round share is used. The market resolves on the single highest such certified share across all contests.
Règles de chaque résultat
- At least 2%
- If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 2% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 4%
- If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 4% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 4.5%
- If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 4.5% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 5%
- If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 5% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 6%
- If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 6% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 8%
- If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 8% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 10%
- If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 10% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 12%
- If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 12% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 14%
- If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 14% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
