KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Tarcísio de Freitas 98%En tête parmi 6 options
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
11,3 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
2.0 pt
Spread modéréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 minutes
25 avr. 26, 14:00 UTC4 oct. 27, 14:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
São Paulo Federal Senate election winners?
KalshiSão Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place
PolymarketSão Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place
PolymarketSão Paulo FC vs. Santos FC - More Markets
PolymarketElected Senators for São Paulo in 2026
FutuurBrazil 2026 Election: Who will be elected Senator in São Paulo (SP)? (2 seats)
Manifold MarketsRègles
If the named outcome wins the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
- For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
- If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
- For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
- Également disponible sur Polymarket — São Paulo Governor Election Winner · Tarcísio de Freitas 99%
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+1.1pt60.4%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-2.0pt38.6%
- Renan Santos+0.1pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 133,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 947,3 k €
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt21%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.3pt13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+1.0pt59.8%
- D-House, R-Senate29.4%
- Republicans sweep+0.4pt9.8%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 194,6 M €
KALSHILos Angeles Mayor winner?
- Karen Bass-6.0pt56.4%
- Nithya Raman+7.0pt43.6%
- Volume total
- 28,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 523,8 k €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-1.2pt90.1%
- Republican Party+0.4pt9.9%
- Volume total
- 30,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 493,5 k €
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Next French Presidential Election
- Ohio Senate winner?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 22, 2026?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- Kansas Senate winner?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour São Paulo Governor winner? ?
- Kalshi cote Tarcísio de Freitas à 98% au 22 septembre 2026.
- Quand São Paulo Governor winner? sera-t-il résolu ?
- São Paulo Governor winner? doit être résolu le 4 octobre 2027.
- Comment São Paulo Governor winner? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the named outcome wins the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Où São Paulo Governor winner? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Polymarket.