Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?
3.0 pts (24h)PolitiqueOne-OffUS PoliticsÉlection3mois
KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Texas 34.5%+3.0ptEn tête parmi 16 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Texas 34.5%+3.0ptQualité du marché
52 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
47,1 k €
Liquidité
49 k €
Liquidité élevéeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 minutes
23 sept. 26, 21:00 UTC3 janv. 27, 13:59 UTC
Tendances
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Texas elect a Democratic Senator in 2026, and will they elect at least 14 Democratic Representatives?
Manifold MarketsWill Ohio elect a Democratic Senator in 2026, and will they elect at least 4 Democratic Representatives?
Manifold MarketsBluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026?
KalshiWill a Democratic Senator say something positive about Trump's death within 24 hours of it happening?
Manifold MarketsDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRègles
If Mississippi is the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Federal Election CommissionMississippi Secretary of StateLouisiana Secretary of StateMontana Secretary of StateSouth Carolina State Election CommissionKansas Secretary of StateTexas Secretary of StateIowa Secretary of StateAlaska Division of Electionsthe Florida Division of ElectionsOhio Secretary of StateNorth Carolina State Board of ElectionsGeorgia Secretary of StateMichigan Secretary of StateNew Hampshire Secretary of StateMinnesota Secretary of StateVirginia Department of Elections
- A state's 2024 margin is Donald Trump's share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote minus Kamala Harris's share, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results.
- The margin is negative where Harris won.
- A state qualifies only if the certified winner of its 2026 regular or special U.S. Senate election, after any required runoff or ranked-choice tabulation, is listed on the general-election ballot as a Democrat (including Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party).
- Independent and third-party winners do NOT count, even if they caucus with Democrats.
- Each state's winner is as certified by that state's official election authority.