KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Richard Neal, ≥5% 90.8%En tête parmi 11 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
10,7 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
1.0 pt
Spread serréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 minutes
27 août 26, 19:45 UTC1 sept. 27, 14:00 UTC
Tendances
Règles
If the margin of victory for Richard Neal in the 2026 MA-01 Democratic primary is at or above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory is the vote share received by Richard Neal minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Richard Neal if Richard Neal wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Richard Neal loses.
- If Richard Neal wins, the margin will be positive; if Richard Neal loses, the margin will be negative; if Richard Neal ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
- If Richard Neal runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour MA-01 Democratic primary margin of victory? (Richard Neal) ?
- Kalshi cote Richard Neal, ≥5% à 91% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand MA-01 Democratic primary margin of victory? (Richard Neal) sera-t-il résolu ?
- MA-01 Democratic primary margin of victory? (Richard Neal) doit être résolu le 1 septembre 2027.
- Comment MA-01 Democratic primary margin of victory? (Richard Neal) est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the margin of victory for Richard Neal in the 2026 MA-01 Democratic primary is at or above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.